Guyanese consumers and businesses could face increased prices for fuel, transportation, flour and other essential goods as deepening international conflicts disrupt global diesel and wheat supplies.
Wheat prices have climbed to their highest level in three years amid escalating tensions in the Black Sea, where attacks on grain-carrying vessels and export terminals have disrupted shipments. Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global wheat trade, and continued instability in the region could further restrict supplies and increase international prices.
For Guyana, sustained increases in global wheat prices could eventually raise the cost of imported wheat and place pressure on the prices of flour, bread, pastries, biscuits, pasta and other wheat-based products. Bakeries, restaurants and food manufacturers could also face higher production costs, which may ultimately be passed on to consumers.
At the same time, the global diesel market is experiencing significant pressure as conflicts affect crude-oil movements, refining operations and fuel exports. Recent attacks on Russian refineries have reduced production, while political figures in the United States have called for restrictions on American diesel exports as domestic prices rise. The US administration has reportedly resisted those calls amid warnings that an export ban could worsen global shortages.
Any restriction on diesel exports from major suppliers could intensify competition for available fuel and drive international prices higher. Although Guyana produces crude oil, the country remains dependent on imported refined petroleum products, leaving local fuel prices exposed to changes in global refining capacity, shipping costs and supply.
Higher diesel prices would have effects beyond the fuel pumps. Diesel powers trucks, buses, agricultural machinery, fishing vessels, mining equipment and generators. An extended increase could therefore raise transportation, farming, fishing, mining and construction costs, with businesses potentially passing some of those expenses on to consumers.
The combined impact of higher diesel and wheat prices could also affect the wider cost of living. More expensive fuel increases the cost of moving goods across the country, while rising wheat prices directly affect commonly purchased food products. Other imported commodities could become more expensive if shipping, insurance and freight charges continue to rise.
To cushion Guyanese from imported inflation, the President Dr. Irfaan Ali-led PPP/C Government has maintained the excise tax on petroleum products at zero since March 2022 and continued using pre-pandemic freight rates to calculate import taxes, helping to contain fuel and imported-goods prices. These measures have been complemented by direct cost-of-living support, including cash grants, increased old-age pensions and public assistance, higher income-tax thresholds, school and transportation grants, agricultural assistance and subsidies for essential services. Budget 2026 also sets aside $9 billion for additional targeted cost-of-living interventions as the Government continues to monitor global developments.